How to Pick Your March Madness Bracket

Statistics or Team Colors

It’s time for March Madness! Whether or not your team is going to make the NCAA tournament, almost everyone will take part in some kind of office bracket challenge. When it comes to filling out your bracket there are several schools of thought. Do you use careful thought and consideration of past statistical data? Or do you pick it based on what you like about the teams: colors, mascot or just your gut?

To test these theories, we are going to have a bracket challenge. In next month’s issue, we will reveal the results or our bracket experiment. I’m going to pick my bracket based on statistical analysis (continue reading for analysis), and my wife will pick her bracket using her method — colors and mascots. Although I’d like to say statistics will win, I’ll let you know how it turns out!

For now, let’s talk about some information that might help you pick a bracket based on numbers and research. The first thing you need to do is take your heart out of the equation. No matter which team you’re a fan of, you have to be objective and think with your head. One thing that can be helpful is to start with the Final Four first. If you pick your Final Four and your champion and work backward, you’ll probably be more successful because most people worry so much about picking first round upsets, they forget to focus on the end result. Here is a tip to keep in mind when picking a Final Four. Stay with the top seeds. Only twice has a Final Four been without a No. 1 seed (1980 and 2006), but only once has a Final Four been with all four No. 1 seeds (2008).

Here are some other stats to help you pick your bracket. Since 2000, 42% of the teams to make the Final Four have been No. 1 seeds. In that same period, 22% of the teams in the Final Four were No. 2 seeds and 14% were No. 3 seeds. Looking at the big picture since 2000, 78% of the Final Four teams were three of the top four seeds. When picking your Final Four you might want to think about having two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 or No. 3 seed and a possible wild card like a No. 5 or a No. 8 seed. The seeds you want to avoid are seeds 12 through 16 as well as seeds 7, 9 and 10. Since 1985, no 7 seed, 9 seed or 10 seed has made it to the Final Four.

The Final Four is where it all ends up, but the real excitement is in the opening rounds of the tournament. Here’s some information to help when you’re picking the first two rounds. First of all, never ever pick a No. 16 to beat No. 1 seed. It has never happened. I’m sure someday it will, but it’s unlikely this year. No. 15 seeds have only beaten No. 2 seeds four times, ever. So, you might want to look elsewhere for the upset in the first round. Both No. 3 and No. 4 seeds have similar success in the tournament. No. 3 seeds win 84% of the time and No. 4 seeds win 79% of the time. So, it’s a fairly safe bet to pick the No. 1 through No. 4 seeds to advance to the second round.

Once you move past those relatively safe seeds, things start to get interesting. The remaining games are where you’ll see the majority of upsets, so pay attention to this information and hopefully you’ll be able to pick the right ones! A No. 12 seed beats a No. 5 seed 33% of the time. So, it’s a good bet that you’ll see at least one No. 5 seed go down in the first round. Also if you’re looking for your dark horse, sticking with the No. 12 seed in round two might be a good choice. They win 35% of the time against No. 4 and 86% of the time against a No. 13 seed.

When it comes to the No. 6 versus No. 11, it’s hard to call anything an upset — 30% of the time the No. 11 will beat a No. 6. If that happens, it might be a good choice to continue picking the No. 11 seed. They win 24% of the time against No. 3 and 100% of the time against the No. 14! The No. 7 vs. No. 10 match-up is very interesting because a lot of people pick the No. 10 to win, but the numbers prove otherwise. The No. 7 seeds are dominant, winning 63% of the time. Something else to keep in mind; if the No. 10 happens to beat the No. 7, they win 47% of the time against the No. 2 in the second round and 100% against the No. 15.

In the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game, the No. 9 seed has won 50 of the 92 meetings. So it makes sense to pick the No. 9 over the No. 8, even though it really can’t be considered an upset. One of the more interesting, and probable, second round match-ups are the No. 3 vs. No. 6 games. Those games are nearly a coin flip with the No. 3 seeds having a slightly better winning percentage.

According to Wikipedia, since the inception of the 64-team tournament in 1985, each seed-pairing has played a total of 96 first-round games.

• The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 96 times (100%)
• The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 92 times (96%)
• The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 81 times (84%)
• The #4 seed has beaten the #13 seed 79 times (82%)
• The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 65 times (67%)
• The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 66 times (69%)
• The #7 seed has beaten the #10 seed 60 times (62%)
• The #8 seed has beaten the #9 seed 44 times (46%)

I realize this is a lot to take in, so I included a quick reference chart for you to use to help make your first round selections.

Bryan Glass is responsible for Franchise Development for Kennedy’s All-American Barber Club®. Prior to joining the Kennedy’s team he oversaw the School to work program at Tavares High School and was the Men’s Varsity Basketball coach.

Bryan graduated from the University of Florida with Bachelor or Science degree in History. As an undergrad Bryan was a member of the Sigma Chi fraternity. In his spare time he enjoys coaching basketball, watching football and spending time with his wonderful wife Lindsay.

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